Dreaming of a White Christmas? Keep Dreaming.
Friday, December 10, 2021 - 8:50 A.M.
Well, never say never, I guess. But right now the prospects of seeing a white Christmas this year across southern New England and southeastern New York aren’t looking too good. Of course with Christmas still more than 2 weeks away, changes are possible, but with La Nina and positive NAO teleconnections underway and a mid-level pattern that will feature positive height anomalies much of next week in the east, we are likely to experience above average temperatures much of next week and little accumulating snow during the next 2 weeks. Take this long range solution with a grain of salt, but the latest GFS model forecast for total snow accumulations across the northeast is pretty scant:
The climatological probability of having a white Christmas in Connecticut ranges from 66% in Norfolk down to about 25% in Hartford and 17% in Groton. These probabilities are based on a 30 year rolling average that currently spans from 1981-2010. For this purpose a white Christmas is defined as having at least 1.0” of snow on the ground as of the morning of December 25th.
