Icy or Wet For Friday Morning's Commute?
Thursday, February 3, 2022 - 6:54 P.M.
I had hoped to get this update out yesterday and again this morning but got short circuited by other life events. Basically, the dilemma is that even though our next round of Wintery weather is arriving tomorrow, the short term high resolution modeling still has an unusually wide disparity of solutions in regard to temperatures and precipitation type Friday morning. The difference is due to how each model brings in the colder air. This evening’s update is solely focused on Connecticut. Here is an example of what I am referring to:
Notice where the freezing rain (orange on top map, red on bottom map) and sleet (purple on both maps) are located at 7:00 A.M. tomorrow morning in relation to say, Hartford, Connecticut. The HRRR shows some freezing rain in a portion of the northwest hills but it is just raining everywhere else in Connecticut at that time. The HREF is colder, with freezing rain falling in Hartford at that time, about to mix with sleet. This is a critical difference considering that the morning commute is fully underway at that time.
My best guess is that the morning commute Friday will be getting slippery through much of the northwest hills but that there is a 60/40 probability that it will just be wet from Hartford, south. Regardless of whether this turns out to be correct or not, the rain will change to freezing rain and sleet everywhere in Connecticut later in the morning or during the afternoon, depending where you are. Temperatures will drop through the 30’s, and into the 20’s as we go through the day Friday and into Friday evening. This will cause standing water to start to freeze up, leading to icy conditions developing on many untreated surfaces.
I do not expect much snow out of this system here. There may be a little bit as the precipitation is tapering off but I think any accumulation will be under an inch and in many cases there will probably be little or no snow accumulation. Ice is the bigger threat tomorrow. The precipitation will taper off by late afternoon/early evening.
Northern New England will see big snow from this system. Mixing in parts of southern Vermont and New Hampshire will keep accumulations down a little but I expect to see a wide swath of 10”-20” of snowfall across northern and central Vermont, and New Hampshire, up into Maine (away from the coast), with some locally higher amounts possible. Wax up those skis!